Friday, October 30, 2026 — the market is open, and one pitcher sits above everyone else.
MLB free agency officially began Thursday morning, the day after the Brewers won the World Series. At the top of the class is Tarik Skubal, the 30-year-old left-hander and two-time AL Cy Young winner whom Detroit traded to the Dodgers at the deadline.
The Numbers
From 2024 through 2026, Skubal won 43 games with a 2.42 ERA over 546 innings and led the majors with 18 FanGraphs WAR. There is one note of caution: he recently had an elbow procedure that has been described as revolutionary, and teams will study it closely.
The Price
Scott Boras is aiming for at least $325 million, the figure the Dodgers paid Yoshinobu Yamamoto on a 12-year deal in December 2023 — the current benchmark for starting pitchers. Some executives believe Skubal could approach $400 million; others say the price will be huge but won’t reach that mark. Many doubt he’ll get 10 years, and a 12-year deal is considered unlikely.
The Suitors
The Dodgers have a five-day exclusive window with him, but as a Boras client he is widely expected to test the market. Andrew Friedman has praised Skubal and said the decision belongs to him and his family.
The Mets need starting pitching after a disappointing 2026 and have payroll flexibility. The Phillies, Red Sox and Blue Jays could also push the price up. And the Tigers? They are considered unlikely to bring him back, after never making an extension offer his camp viewed as competitive.
The Lockout Factor
The biggest variable may be labor. The CBA expires December 1, and a lockout is widely expected. Owners want a salary cap; players say they won’t accept one. That uncertainty could make teams cautious with mega-deals — or push them to sign stars quickly before the deadline, as happened before the 2021 lockout, when Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Max Scherzer all signed.
Boras is unconcerned. A cap won’t happen, he argues, and it won’t stop teams from pursuing elite players. “Talent rules,” he said.
The Read
For Detroit, Skubal’s free agency is the final chapter of a story that ended with a deadline trade. For the rest of baseball, it’s the start of the most important negotiation of the winter. Where he lands — and whether it happens before December 1 — will shape the entire offseason.
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