Monday, July 20, 2026 — exactly two weeks until the August 3 Trade Deadline.
Most teams at this point in July have picked a lane. The San Diego Padres are standing in the middle of the road with a report out of the Union-Tribune saying they “have not ruled out anything” — and that phrase covers the best closer in baseball.
The Standings Say One Thing. The Trend Says Another.
San Diego avoided a sweep in Kansas City on Sunday with a 19-2 demolition of the Royals. It was the kind of result that flatters a team badly in need of flattering.
The reality: the Padres entered Monday at 49-50, having gone 20-32 across their last 52 games. They sit only 2 1/2 games from the third National League Wild Card spot — but with five other clubs stacked in front of them. On May 23 they were 11 games over .500, holding the top NL Wild Card position and sitting a half-game behind the Dodgers in the West. That team no longer exists.
Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that multiple sources say San Diego has left every door open, including trades involving closer Mason Miller, high-leverage lefty Adrián Morejón and starter Michael King.
Mason Miller Would Break the Market
Understand what it would mean if Miller genuinely became available.
He has a 0.84 ERA this season with an NL-best 26 saves, 79 strikeouts in 42 2/3 innings across 41 appearances, and roughly 2.5 wins above replacement out of the bullpen. He’s controlled through 2029. He would be, without argument, the best pitcher on the trade market — and relievers with that combination of dominance and control essentially never move in July.
There’s an added layer of awkwardness. A.J. Preller acquired Miller from the Athletics last summer in a package headlined by Leo De Vries, one of the best prospects in the sport. Flipping him barely twelve months later would be a remarkable reversal, even by Preller’s standards.
The Bogaerts Problem
Here is the detail that makes this deadline genuinely unusual. One idea reportedly under discussion is attaching Miller to Xander Bogaerts — using the game’s premier closer as the sweetener that gets a rival to absorb a contract San Diego would rather not carry.
The math explains the motivation. Bogaerts owns a .645 OPS this season and turns 34 in October. He has more than seven years remaining on the 11-year, $280 million deal he signed after 2022, with roughly $175 million still owed from 2027 onward. He also holds a full no-trade clause, meaning nothing happens without his approval.
And he isn’t alone on the ledger. Manny Machado ($245 million from 2027-33), Fernando Tatis Jr. ($266 million from 2027-34), Jackson Merrill ($124 million from 2027-34) and Jake Cronenworth ($48 million from 2027-30) are all locked in long term. With a new ownership group now in place, nobody outside the building knows whether Preller has been asked to reduce payroll — and that question shapes everything he does over the next fourteen days.
Michael King Is the Likelier Move
If San Diego does sell, King may be the cleanest piece to move. He’s pitching well on a $17 million salary and holds player options for 2027 and 2028 that he has every reason to decline given his performance. A club that loses him to free agency in three months gets nothing; a club that trades him in two weeks gets something real.
The complication is that the Padres barely have a rotation as it is. Behind King sit Griffin Canning, Walker Buehler, JP Sears and Germán Márquez, with Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta both on the injured list. Subtract King and 2026 is functionally over — which may be precisely the point.
What to Watch
San Diego is the deadline’s true swing team. If the Padres go on a 10-day run, they buy, and the market loses a seller. If they keep playing .385 baseball, the best reliever in the sport and a quality mid-rotation starter both hit a market that is desperately short on pitching.
Two weeks. Two very different Augusts. Preller has made a career out of choosing the unexpected one.
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