MLB Trade Rumors: The significance of Roki Sasaki's signing for the Dodgers
Roki Sasaki, a right-hander from Japan, has declared his intention to sign with the Dodgers. Technically, it will be a minor league deal because Sasaki is subject to the international bonus pool system, but as long as he is healthy, he will undoubtedly be on the team's Opening Day roster. According to reports, the Wasserman client would get a $6.5 million signing bonus. The trade, which could be finalized at any time until the evening of January 23, has not been formally announced by the Dodgers.
Though different outcomes occasionally looked slightly feasible, the outcome is ultimately rather unsurprising.
The Dodgers have long been seen as the most logical landing spot for Sasaki, and although the Padres and Blue Jays tried to make surprising runs, the most likely outcome has now come to pass.
Sasaki’s free agency has been hotly anticipated for some time. He made his debut in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball in 2021 at the young age of 19 and went on to post outstanding results over the past few years. Thanks to triple-digit velocity on his fastball and a deadly splitter, he has managed to post a 2.10 earned run average in 394 2/3 innings over the past four years. He struck out 32.7% of batters faced and limited walks to a 5.7% clip.
He would have been among the top free agents this or any offseason as a result of such performance, which would have typically resulted in a huge salary. Sasaki, on the other hand, appeared intent on beginning his major league career as quickly as could, regardless of the cost.
Had he waited until he turned 25, MLB would have regarded him as a professional and allowed him to sign for whatever price the market would pay. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who obtained a $325M guarantee from the Dodgers during the previous offseason, followed that path.
However, Sasaki is taking action now because he recently turned 23 and is therefore governed by MLB's international bonus pool structure as an amateur.
Each team is given a certain amount to spend on foreign amateurs each year under that scheme. Each team receives $5 million to $8 million this year, which is a small sum in comparison to what Yamamoto was able to achieve. Since the larger clubs couldn't outbid the smaller clubs, as was the case with many other free agents, it was theoretically conceivable for any club to sign him.
There were still plenty of reasons to believe the Dodgers would win, though, even with that supposedly level playing field. Though Sasaki and his agent Joel Wolfe didn't disclose anything about the player's preferences, it makes sense that the Dodgers would be a desirable destination. Because of its relative proximity, the West Coast, where they play, is frequently attractive to players traveling from Asia.
They have a proven track record of success on the field; they have advanced to the postseason every year since 2013 and just won the World Series. In addition, they have two more Japanese celebrities on their roster: Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani.
How much Sasaki would consider such considerations in relation to others was unknown. The idea that Sasaki was concerned about other Japanese players' presence was refuted by Wolfe. Additionally, he hinted last month that Sasaki would favor a smaller market due to some conflict with the media while he was in Japan.
There were several reasons why he would want to think about situations in which he would rather go somewhere else.
According to reports, Sasaki has a close bond with current Padre Yu Darvish, and the Padres might have provided a smaller market than the Dodgers. Rogers Communications, the club's main broadcaster, owns the Blue Jays, which may allow them to restrict Sasaki's media access. Theoretically, being the only MLB team in Canada created more opportunity for Japanese firms to sponsor them rather than sharing the L.A. market with Yamamoto and Ohtani. In addition to having a bigger international bonus pool than the Dodgers, the Jays increased it by trading for more pool space from the Guardians.
However, the most evident thing has occurred, regardless of whatever short-term drama that occurred over this summer.
Ohtani, Yamamoto, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman are just a few of the top players on the club that Sasaki has joined. The Dodgers haven't lost less than 80 games since 2005, and now they're adding another incredibly gifted player to the mix.
In addition to being a big roster addition, Sasaki's talent is also a huge financial investment. Only this season and until he meets the requirements for arbitration or signs an extension will Sasaki be able to meet the league minimum as an amateur. For the Dodgers, who already owe a lot of money to their aforementioned stars as well as Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Teoscar Hernández, and many others, that is a huge amount.
At least in terms of sheer talent, it also provides them with an embarrassment of riches in the rotation. Sasaki, Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May are now in their rotation mix. Clayton Kershaw's eventual resignation is all but certain. The Dodgers' rotation should have eight or nine players, despite the fact that Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt, and River Ryan are all expected to miss most or all of the upcoming season. As depth starters, Nick Frasso, Landon Knack, Justin Wrobleski, and Bobby Miller—a once-heralded rookie—are available.
One team has an incredible amount of talent. Despite their playoff rotation, the Dodgers managed to win the World Series the previous season.
This year, the rotation should be a strength going into October. That’s despite the injury risk associated with essentially everyone in the group. Glasnow has never surpassed 134 MLB innings in a season. Yamamoto was limited to 18 starts in his first MLB season by a rotator cuff strain. Snell has only topped 130 frames twice. Kershaw, Gonsolin and May all missed most or all of last season recovering from major surgeries. Ohtani underwent elbow surgery late in 2023 and didn’t pitch last year.
Sasaki comes with plenty of durability questions in his own right. He averaged fewer than 100 innings per season over his four years in NPB.
A year before, he was restricted to 111 frames in 18 appearances and never topped 130 innings. In 2024, Sasaki sustained two injuries: shoulder fatigue and an oblique strain.
The Dodgers will gladly accept a few IL stays in exchange for rate supremacy. Bulk innings aren't very important to Los Angeles. As they pursue pitchers with top-of-the-rotation potential, they are willing to accept the risk of injuries. Naturally, their resources play a role in that, but Sasaki isn't influenced by money.
Sasaki would have been a $6.5 million addition to any team's roster. In addition, the Dodgers will have to pay the Chiba Lotte Marines, the pitcher's NPB team, a $1.3 million posting fee.
The amount of the player's signing bonus determines how much the posting fee is. The Marines could only earn 20% of Sasaki's bonus because it was set at a few million dollars.
The total cost to acquire Japan's best pitcher is $7.8 million. In back-to-back offseasons, the Dodgers have acquired what is arguably the best pitcher in the NFL. Sasaki will be with them for the typical six-year period of team control that comes with any prospect being promoted. For the upcoming three seasons, his salary is expected to be close to the league minimum. After that, he would endure the arbitration process for three years. According to MLB regulations, the Dodgers and Sasaki are not allowed to come to any sort of agreement about a contract extension in order to get around the bonus pool restrictions.
The Dodgers cannot now have any kind of unofficial long-term contract in the works, even though there is no set deadline for when they could try to extend Sasaki.
The Dodgers and Giants were tied for the lowest bonus pool at the beginning of this signing session. On January 15, they had $5.1462 million to spend on foreign amateurs. To keep money available for Sasaki, the Dodgers let some of their verbal contracts with young prospects expire. Dylan Campbell, a minor league outfielder, was traded to the Phillies on Friday night, expanding their pool. Although their exact bonus distribution is unknown, Sasaki appears to be responsible for practically their whole pool. Any team would be happy to make that move for a possible plug-and-play star.
For supporters of the other two finalists, it's a devastating blow. This morning, the Padres learned that they were not included in the mix. They now have an even more difficult task in the NL West and have several holes in their rotation. On yet another high-profile free agent, the Blue Jays come in second. In only the last two offseasons, Toronto has missed out on Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and Sasaki, among others.
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