MLB Trade Rumors: St. Louis Cardinals likely to hold Nolan Arenado
It's likely that the Cardinals have decided on a possible deal for Nolan Arenado.
All offseason, there have been a lot of whispers about a deal involving Nolan Arenado. During this offseason, the St. Louis Cardinals made it obvious that trading the slugger was Plan A, B, C, and D.
Arenado is still with the Cardinals after more than a week of spring training. Early this winter, the Astros were on the verge of signing Arenado, but he rejected a trade and made it plain that he had no intention of going to Houston. After the team signed Alex Bregman, the Boston Red Sox were no longer a viable alternative.
This implies that Arenado will be in St. Louis until Opening Day, unless something unexpected happens.
Despite the trade fiasco, the Cardinals are expected to keep Nolan Arenado.
In fact, there was never much chance of a transaction in the first place. The number of possible trade suitors was constrained by Arenado's no-trade clause. His age is thirty-three. His performance has deteriorated; his 16 home runs are the fewest since 2015, and his 101 OPS+ is the third-worst of his 12-year major league career.
Arenado's contract comes next. Prior to becoming a free agent, he owes $21 million in 2025, $16 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027.
The Cardinals will undoubtedly bear some of the cost of the move. But given Arenado's downturn, it's a significant and drawn-out investment for any prospective acquiring team.
Furthermore, a small trade pool is all but eliminated with the Red Sox out and Arenado seeming refusing to consider the Astros. The New York Yankees were mentioned as a potential fit this winter, but according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, who spoke to me on The Baseball Insiders podcast, they have little to no money available, even though Arenado took a 3–4 bus ride to play a spring training game against the Yankees.
Despite being foreseeable, the Cardinals' decision to hold onto Arenado is an organizational failure. They made an already difficult situation much worse by declaring their plan to trade Arenado. Arenado deserves praise for handling the matter with poise and dignity and for stating that he is ready to play in St. Louis.
However, the Cardinals intended to cut payroll and play young players in order to start again in the future, which is why they traded Arenado. However, Arenado's future seems to be in St. Louis, at least in 2025, which further postpones a long-overdue reset with the Cardinals.
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